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Nelly Q3E: A case intact, earnings upgrades - SEB

Ahead of Nelly Group's Q3 results (due: 25 October at 08.00 CET) we upgrade our EBIT forecasts by an average of 4% in 2024-26. This reflects increased gross margin assumptions (return rates, share of PL sales). Since 2023 Nelly has successfully implemented strategic changes to its assortment (weighing on sales, bolstering profitability). We now forecast Q3 LTM EBIT margins to reach solid levels closer to 7%. We reiterate our DCF based mid-point value of SEK 35 (26-44).

Ahead of Nelly Group's Q3 results (due: 25 October at 08.00 CET) we upgrade our EBIT forecasts by an average of 4% in 2024-26. This reflects increased gross margin assumptions (return rates, share of PL sales). Since 2023 Nelly has successfully implemented strategic changes to its assortment (weighing on sales, bolstering profitability). We now forecast Q3 LTM EBIT margins to reach solid levels closer to 7%. We reiterate our DCF based mid-point value of SEK 35 (26-44).
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