Netcompany: Profit warning is consensus scenario, not ours - Nordea

Given its H1 performance, the burning question post-Q2 was if Netcompany would issue a profit warning later in 2022. Based on company-compiled consensus and the share price in absolute and relative terms, this scenario seems to have been priced in. However, we still believe Netcompany will deliver according to its 2022 guidance, and thus see revenue growth and profitability picking up in H2. At end-Q2, it had 2022 revenue visibility of DKK 5.bn; versus its minimum DKK 5.4bn revenue guidance, this demands an in/out H2 order intake in line with the past. Ahead of the Q3 report, we have reduced 2023E revenue growth by 5 pp to 10% due to the looming recession, increased depreciations and interest costs. This, in combination with peer group multiple contraction, means our combined SOTP- and DCF-based valuation suggests a DKK 440-510 per share valuation range (was DKK 535-620). No refinancing before 2025. Marketing material commissioned by Netcompany.