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Netcompany: Strong Q1 makes FY guidance (too) conservative - Nordea

We did expect Netcompany to have a solid start to 2021, but Q1 was even stronger than we and the company-compiled consensus anticipated, including an 8% EBITA beat (32% growth y/y). Q1 is a seasonally soft quarter (in terms of profit), still, multiplying Q1 EBITA by four takes 2021 EBITA above Netcompany's guidance. Strong performance across all four countries and a positive mix effect from more private-sector business makes the future look bright. We raise our 2021-23 EBITA estimates by 4-10%, leading our updated DCF- and peer-group-based valuation to suggest a fair value range of DKK 620-720 per share (up from DKK 590-690). Marketing material commissioned by Netcompany.

We did expect Netcompany to have a solid start to 2021, but Q1 was even stronger than we and the company-compiled consensus anticipated, including an 8% EBITA beat (32% growth y/y). Q1 is a seasonally soft quarter (in terms of profit), still, multiplying Q1 EBITA by four takes 2021 EBITA above Netcompany's guidance. Strong performance across all four countries and a positive mix effect from more private-sector business makes the future look bright. We raise our 2021-23 EBITA estimates by 4-10%, leading our updated DCF- and peer-group-based valuation to suggest a fair value range of DKK 620-720 per share (up from DKK 590-690). Marketing material commissioned by Netcompany.
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