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Nilörn: Strong beat, but uncertainties remain - ABG

Q3: a double-digit beat vs. ABGSC EBIT expectations
Expect a slight gross margin contraction in ‘22e
Share is trading at EV/EBIT 8.7x-9.4x for ‘21e-‘23e

Nilörngruppen delivered a strong beat versus our expectations in Q3. Sales grew 38% y-o-y to SEK 203m, 28% above our estimate. The sharp increase in sales resulted in EBIT of SEK 29m, corresponding to growth of 43% y-o-y and 74% above our expectation of SEK 17m. The rise in sales is primarily driven by: 1) continued tailwinds among sports and e-commerce customers, 2) an upswing in the brick-and-mortar customer base from H1’21 due to eased pandemic restrictions (primarily in England and Germany), and 3) increased efficiency in the production plants. Furthermore, increased production capacity provided support to the group’s gross margin and partially offset the negative effects from energy shortages in China and increased freight costs. In all, the gross margin contracted by 1.2pp but expanded by 0.9pp from 2019’s level to 45.7% (-0.8pp vs ABGSCe).

On the aforementioned estimate revisions, the Nilörngruppen share is trading at an EV/EBIT adj. of 8.7x-9.4x for ‘21e-‘23e. For comparison, its significant larger peer, Avery Dennison, is trading at a forward-looking EV/EBIT of 17.9x
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