What to look for in Q1'23
Q1'23e and H1'23e are still likely to be tough for retailers and their suppliers, as we have not yet seen a significant destocking among a large enough number of major retailers. Therefore, we cut Q1'23e sales by 4% and EBIT by 16%, implying -24% org. growth y-o-y and an EBIT margin of 9.6%. The order intake could decline sequentially again as well, and given the exceptionally high Q1'22 order intake of SEK 283m, we could see a significant drop y-o-y. Assuming an order intake equal to the quarterly average over the past four years of SEK 195m, the y-o-y order intake decline would be 31%. However, such a steep decline would of course be due to a very tough comp, and when making the same comparison on a q-o-q basis, the decline would be 15% instead.
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