Q2’22 thoughts and outlook Looking at the organic growth of 39% (+10pp. vs ABGSCe 29%), the overperformance looks to be broadbased, with Germany performing strongly. Furthermore, the newer markets in the southern of Europe coupled with the US is said to see an encouraging development. The gross margin contracted to 44%, down 3.6pp y-o-y but still above our expectations (+1pp. vs ABGSCe of 43%). A decline was expected, partly due to the issues in China. Concerning the outlook, mgmt. states that while the macroeconomic environment is very uncertain, order intake continues to look encouraging. We acknowledge the uncertain environment, but also note that the company on an LTM basis has posted an adj. EBIT margin of 16%, 6pp above the financial targets.
We expect cons. estimate revisions by some 10-20% The Nilörn share has outperformed the market and is up +29% YTD and is trading at 10x EV/EBIT in ‘22e on our unrevised estimates. Mechanically, the estimated effect on isolated Q2 numbers would be 5% on 2022 sales and 15% on EBIT. Looking at ’23-‘24e, we expect cons. to lift sales and EBIT estimates by some 10-20%. Nilörn will host a conf call today at 11.00 CEST. Link: Join Live Event.
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