Based on Nordea card data, the Nordic restaurant market has remained robust in Q4. When comparing to 2019 level, market growth appears to be strongest in Norway with close to 30% higher card spend in restaurants on nominal terms. In Finland, the most important market for NoHo, nominal growth was, on average, 13% when comparing to 2019 level. In real terms, growth was, on average, around 2%. We model NoHo’s Q4 sales up 13% from Q4 2019, 3% below Refinitiv consensus. Similarly, we are 3% below consensus on EBIT for Q4. We expect Finland sales to be up 12% from Q4 2019 level, while we model International sales to be up 19% from Q4 2019. Owing to robust market demand and NoHo’s growth ambitions, we believe the company will continue with its growth investments (e.g. scaling up Friends & Brgrs and M&A especially in Norway). We have a fair value range of EUR 10-12.5 per NoHo share.
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