NoHo Partners: Q3 likely to be strong, focus on outlook for high season and 2023 - Nordea

NoHo Partners will report its Q3 on 8 November. We are 1% below Refinitiv consensus on the top line and 3% ahead on EBIT, while we believe investor focus will be on outlook for important Q4 and even more on 2023. The company upgraded its guidance on 3 October and expects above EUR 300m sales and above 8.5% EBIT margin from the restaurant business. The company will book a clearly negative impact from Eezy shareholding (not fully visible in consensus) to its financing expenses, while this should not drive the share currently, we believe. We expect a strong Q3 from restaurant business with EUR 83.5m sales and EUR 7.9m EBIT, corresponding to a 9.5% EBIT margin. We note that the Finnish restaurant market, based on Nordea card data, has been robust and clearly above 2019 level, even when adjusting for inflation. Similarly, Nordic restaurant market data from Nordea indicate strong marker performance, especially in Norway. Hence, we believe Q3 will be a strong quarter, while market indications point to a strong reservation situation in Q4 as well. For 2022E, Refinitiv consensus is expecting EUR 310m sales and EUR 29.7m EBIT (9.6% EBIT margin), while we have modelled EUR 306m sales and EUR 29m EBIT (9.5% EBIT margin). For 2023E, we are 1% ahead of consensus on EUR 339m sales and 3% ahead on EUR 30.8m EBIT. Until now, the restaurant market has been resilient in the high inflationary and low consumer confidence environment.