Nolato gives an update to Q1 financials, saying that group sales will be roughly SEK 2.7bn (-14% vs. ABGSCe 3.1bn) and the EBITA margin will be 9% (ABGSCe 11%, Q1’21 11.4%), for an implied EBITA of SEK 243m (-29% vs ABGSCe). The company says all three segments will see fairly flat y-o-y growth in Q1, meaning that almost the entire deviation from our estimates stems from the Integrated Solutions segment where Nolato had previously guided for ~40% y-o-y growth. The reason for the weaker performance in Integrated Solutions is 1) component shortages causing customers to reduce their production and 2) the war in Ukraine, since the Eastern European market is a meaningful end-market for vaporised heating products (VHP).
Isolated Q1 numbers would imply 7% lower ’22e adj. EBITA
The isolated numbers in the press release would imply negative sales revisions of 3% on ’22e sales and 7% on ’22e adj. EBITA. On a segment level, the implied ’22e sales revisions would be -1% on Medical Solutions, -7% on Integrated Solutions and 0% on Industrial Solutions.
Possible knock-on effects if issues continue
The figures above only consider direct effects from the isolated numbers in the press release. However, it is likely that similar issues will continue to affect the Integrated Solutions segment in coming quarters. Our current organic growth estimates for the segment are 20% in Q2, 10% in Q3 and 10% in Q4.
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