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North Media: A ‘back to business’ quarter coming - ABG

We see -1.5% sales growth y-o-y & +2.3pp EBIT growth
YesPlease subscribers back to ~50% following dip
ABGSCe in high end of guidance, FVR to DKK 110-165

With strong seasonal comps for Q3’21e on sales, we estimate North Media will deliver sales of DKK 257 (-1.5% y-o-y), but see a continued margin expansion with an EBIT margin of 25.5% (2.3pp y-o-y). We reduce our return on securities estimate to DKK 0m (DKK 12m) for Q3’21e, with weighted gains in Genmab, DSV, Novo Nordisk and SEA and losses in Amazon, SimCorp, Orsted, Visa, Teradyne and PayPal. However, we see positive signs during October (~3.4%), and thus increase our return on securities to 20m (DKK -34m) for Q4’21e driven by strong rebounds in nearly all North Media’s equity holdings. This is the basis of our EPS changes for 2021e.

With the higher return on our securities estimate for 2021, we increase our fair value range to DKK 110-165/share (106-159).
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