Going into Q1’22, we know that the company has a limited direct exposure to the Russia/Ukraine conflict, having ~1% of sales from Russia (~0% from Ukraine). We update our estimates to account for the termination of sales to Russia, effective 1 March 2022. Össur is furthermore directly impacted by having ~30 outsourced IT personnel in Ukraine, whom the company is helping to the best of its ability. A scenario in which these 30 employees are not be able to work, will not have an impact on the continued operations of the company. Indirectly, the company used to source titanium from Russia, which it has now ceased to do.
Expected margin progress adjusted to reflect high cost base
Current FY’22 guidance is for an EBITDA margin of 20-21%, which assumes extra costs of USD 9-11m (due primarily to higher input and logistics costs), with the majority (~USD 7m) expected to be in H1’22, followed by an improvement in H2’22. However, due to the ongoing supply chain issues, high inflation, COVID risks in China and a lack of pricing power, we adjust our assumptions to reflect a slower margin increase going forward. We now expect an EBITDA margin in FY’22 of 20.1% (FactSet. cons. 20.8%), placing us at the lower end of current guidance, FY’23 of 20.8% (cons. 21.8%) and FY’24 of 21.3% (22.3%).
Q1’22 focus likely to be around supply chain and costs
The focus on 26 April will likely be around the ongoing supply chain challenges and cost expectations for FY’22, which we expect could put pressure on the current guidance. Based on our estimate changes, we lower our scenario-based fair value range to DKK 32-60 (35-66).
Läs mer på Introduce
Aktuellt
SENASTE
