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Össur: Post-pandemic era on the horizon - ABG

Solid Q4 with growth across all segments and regions
FY’22 EBITDA margin guidance seems cautious
Reiterate fair value range of DKK 35-66

Solid progress within both segments
Ôssur delivered a solid Q4 on the top line, with sales of USD 188m (ABGSCe 190m, company-collected consensus 189m), but fell short on net profits at USD 18m (ABGSCe 21m, cons. 21m). This is largely due to the fact that the higher margin prosthetics segment grew less than consensus. expected (USD 118m vs. ABGSCe 125m, cons. USD 124m), while the lower-margin B&S segment accounted for more growth than expected (USD 69m. vs. ABGSCe 65m, cons. USD 65m).

FY’22 organic growth guidance of 6-9% (cons. 7.1%)
Össur guides for FY’22 organic growth of 6-9% (ABGSCe 7.5%, cons. 7.1%), which will be driven by: 1) price increases implemented from Q1 (~2-2.5%), 2) some pent-up demand being realised within bionics and 3) the general short-to-medium term growth drivers, being tech-trade-up, emerging markets (historically 10-12% organic p.a.) and M&A. For the EBITDA margin, the company guides for 20-21% (ABGSCe 21%, cons. 22.1%), which seems slightly cautious, as it assumes e.g. freight costs will normalise somewhat in H2’21, but also that rising costs, acquisitions and current FX rates will likely negatively impact the group EBITDA margin by 20bps in FY’22.

Potential new revenue drivers on the horizon
With the underlying market remaining robust, we believe Össur’s current growth drivers are likely to yield at or above the 3-5% market growth rates in the long-term. However, management confirmed today that it is looking at ways to create new revenue drivers beyond Össur’s core of prosthetics, but using its current technology. This could provide some upside potential to the mid-to-long-term revenue growth expectations. Overall, we adjust our FY’22 estimates to reflect the lower-than-expected EBITDA guidance but reiterate our fair value range of DKK 35-66, highlighting that the share is trading at NTM P/E of 24
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