Strong Q4, but another delay of Ovzon-3
Ovzon's Q4 was strong. Sales of SEK 101m (+11% vs. ABGSCe SEK 91m) grew 80% y-o-y (adj. for the sale of production stock in Q4'21), driven by both good momentum in its leased capacity business (+49% y-o-y) and terminal sales (20% of Q4 sales). We believe the momentum stems from the recent geopolitical situation, so we see further prospects for growth in 2023e, despite this requiring Ovzon to find more capacity as it is now fully utilising its current capacity. Meanwhile, the gross margin of 43% (vs. ABGSCe 37%) improved well from 35% in Q3'22 on the higher sales. That said, Ovzon’s news flow has been mixed lately. While operational momentum for its leased capacity business has been strong, on 3 Feb, Ovzon communicated another delay of Ovzon-3, entailing cost overruns of ~USD 25m and a subsequent rights issue of ~SEK 200m. The cost overruns mainly reflect its decision to change its launch provider to SpaceX (from Arianespace), while its manufacturer, Maxar, still has problems finalising Ovzon-3 due to the supply chain. That said, changing to SpaceX should be largely neutral in terms of launch risk, as SpaceX's Falcon-9 historical success rate of 99% ('10-'22) is in line with Arianespace at 98%.
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