Pollia reported Q1 sales of SEK 526m (+22% y-o-y) and EBIT of SEK 24.3m (11.9m). This was 4% and 17% ahead of ABGSCe and the positive deviation was driven by QRIOS/Poolia Sweden. Q1 was the first quarter where Poolia disclosed numbers for the consultancy business QRIOS. Sales in that business area was SEK 90m (+90% y-o-y) with an EBIT margin of 5.9% (-1.6%). We find it particularly interesting that QRIOS has reached a critical mass where it has gone from loss-making in 2020 to being margin accretive to the group already. It also gives more transparency to the margin improvements in Poolia Sweden that reported Q1 sales of SEK 136m (+46% y-o-y) with an impressive EBIT margin of 7.6% (2.5%). Uniflex Sweden showed slower growth y-o-y with a lower EBIT margin, which was expected after the strong 2021. The only downside to the report was the negative EBIT margin in Norway. However, this only constitutes 4% of group sales meaning the positives more than offset that disappointment.
Revisions mainly stem from profitability in Poolia Sweden
We raise our estimates on the back of the Q1 report, mainly from deviations in QRIOS/Poolia Sweden. We increase sales for ’22e-‘23e by 4-3% and EBIT by 13-11% as the profitability levels exceeded our expectations. Poolia Sweden (now QRIOS and Poolia) has been on a path of increased profitability since the beginning of 2020 and we think it has more upside long-term. We think Poolia Sweden will aim to bring EBIT margins to ~8% and QRIOS to ~10%. The risk short-term is a weakened economy, which would make customers more hesitant to hire new staff. We think a worsening macro-outlook would be especially evident in Uniflex Sweden.
‘22e P/E of 10x, EV/EBIT of 7x and 7% expected div. yield
The share is currently trading at a P/E of 10x for ‘22e and ended Q1 with a net cash position excl. leasing of ...
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