Estimate changes
We cut Q3'23e sales by ~17% to SEK 20.5m and lower EBITDA by ~25% to SEK 0.9m. Moreover, we cut '23e-'25e sales by 12-6% to ~SEK 83m and EBITDA by 18% to ~SEK 2.1m on the back of the report. Global smartphone shipment data indicates that the Algo recovery will likely not come in Q3'23e, but rather Q4'24e or perhaps slightly later, and we are therefore somewhat more cautious on our Algo sales estimates. That said, when the smartphone OEMs have successfully destocked and are phasing in new models, we can expect a rather rapid recovery. The Digital Identity ARR is growing sequentially, while the quality of the Digital Identity revenue has increased, as it is now increasingly recurring rather than on-premise/point-in-time. In the long-term, the Digital Identity segment will diversify the company's cyclical risks related to the Algo segment and should lead to more predictable cash flow streams.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at a '23e-'24e EV/EBITDA of 30-5x, and on the Digital Identity ARR, alone, the company is trading at an EV/ARR of ~3.5x.
Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier
Aktuellt
SENASTE
