2022 was a turbulent year for Probi. While the outlook for '23 is on the cautious side, we see some promising drivers including 1) three potential new key accounts in the US (one of them already placing orders), two of them in the Clinbac segment (i.e., higher margins), 2) the launch of a new product category (spores), which could start commercialisation in Q2'23e, and 3) the roll-out of the four Sinopharm products. Probi has also completed the pilot study on Gut-Brain; product launch is expected in '23.
Sales estimates for '23e down 10%
We cut our estimates for 2023, now assuming sales growth of 5% for the FY (12% previously), mainly driven by the good prospects in the APAC region. In the EMEA region, we expect a low sales in Q1'23, with growth back from Q2'23e, driven by the taking over of the distribution of its own brand in Sweden. The share is trading at an NTM EV/EBITA of 13x, 38% below peer BioGaia (NTM annualised 3-year average of 24x).
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