We expect Q2 clean EBIT of SEK 62m, which compares to SEK 219m in Q2'22 and SEK 149m in Q1'23. The q-o-q effects are likely: SEK +10m from lower chemical costs, SEK +5m from FX, SEK -90m from lower pulp prices net of hedges, SEK -10m from higher wood costs and SEK -5m from higher personnel expenses. Thus, we arrive at Q2 clean EBIT of SEK 60-65m. Rottneros' mix-weighted pulp price is down ~12% q-o-q, and cost pressures persist going into H2'23. Södra has announced pulpwood prices up another 15% in Sweden (~SEK -90m annualised EBIT effect). We reduce '23/'24 estimates by -36%/-20% on the current pulp/pulpwood margin squeeze.
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