This is our earnings bridge
On 21 March, Rottneros announced a profit warning that cited Q1'25 EBIT below Q4'24 (SEK -28m). Note that clean EBIT in Q4 was SEK -91m (sold SEK 76m in CO2 emission rights and had SEK -13m in impairments). According to Rottneros, the PW was driven by the continued rise in the prices of wood raw materials, negative market development on CTMP pulp (price/volume), and the weaker USD/SEK. The main effects q-o-q are likely: SEK -33m on lower pulp prices (1Q lag), SEK -11m on FX, SEK -10m on wood costs, and SEK +100m from a reversal of the maintenance stop in Q4. We arrive at Q1 clean EBIT of ~SEK -45m. Q2 will likely be somewhat better than Q1, driven by higher pulp prices and somewhat better volumes. We expect Q2 clean EBIT of ~SEK -25m to ~SEK -35m.
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