* Small negative sales estimate revisions * Long term outlook is encouraging * Reiterate fair value range of SEK 30-45 Long term investments weighed on Q3 The report was softer than we expected for both sales and EBITDA. While Q3 is seasonally the largest quarter, supported by the start of a new school year, Skolon recently signed new contracts that seemingly did not contribute to Q3 sales, presumably due to the contracts being signed later than usual. Moreover, Skolon's expansion into Germany requires investments in a new office and personnel, which weighed on margins. Paying users increased by 19% y-o-y and 3% q-o-q to 994k, leading to an ARPPU of SEK 179 (up 8.5% y-o-y). This alludes to increased engagement by users, and that new tools such as Skolon Guardians have been well-received. We anticipate that growth in the upcoming months will be primarily volume-driven and supported by an increased utilisation rate. We cut '25e-'27e sales by 4-2% We trim our '25e-'27e sales by 4-2% after the report. The EBITDA miss in Q3 leads to negative '25e revisions of 50%, however, keep in mind that the absolute change is merely SEK -2.7m. The Swedish operations continue to show positive EBITDA (7% margin YTD) and a 22pp higher GM than other markets for the quarter (34% vs 12% YTD). Volume growth has primarily stemmed from markets outside of Sweden, and new markets initially carry lower margins than more mature markets. We lower margins a tad for '26e-'27e, as we expect continued expansion internationally, leading to negative changes in '26e-'27e EBITDA. We do however note that other markets were EBITDA-positive (2%) in Q3 when isolated, likely driven by Norway, which is encouraging. Implied valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at '26e 10x EV/GP adj. (GP less capitalised work). We maintain our fair value range at SEK 30-45 on the back of the report, corresponding to a '26e EV/GP adj. range of 9x-14x.
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