* Minor estimate revisions
* On track to reach 1m paying users in '25e
* Maintain fair value range of SEK 30-45
International expansion continues
The report was largely in line on sales, with a better EBITDA than we expected. Q2 is seasonally a quarter with a high inflow of new users, as the schools prepare for the upcoming autumn semester. As such, paying users increased by 24% y-o-y and 10% q-o-q to 962k, leading to an ARPPU of SEK 173 (up 8% y-o-y). This alludes to increased engagement by users, and that new tools such as Skolon Guardians has been well-received. While earnings were negative, the EBITDA margin grew by 5pp y-o-y (from -7% to -2%), despite a lower GM. We anticipate that growth in the upcoming months will stem from an increased utilisation rate from the new users. We expect 2025 to be the year that Skolon reaches one million paying users, and its first positive full year EBITDA result.
Minor negative estimate changes
We trim our '25e-'26e sales by 2% after the report. While EBITDA was better than expected in H1'25, the recent gross margin trajectory leads us to decrease our GM assumptions. The Swedish operations continue to show positive EBITDA (2% margin in H1'25) and a 15pp higher GM than other markets for the quarter (33% vs 18%). Volume growth has primarily stemmed from markets outside of Sweden, and new markets initially carry lower margins than more mature markets. This leads to negative changes in '25e-'26e EBITDA of 11-5% (keep in mind that the change in '25e EBITDA is only SEK 1m).
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at 13x '25e EV/GP, and 14x EV/GP adj. (GP less capitalised work). We maintain our fair value range at SEK 30-45 on the back of the report, corresponding to a '25e EV/GP range of 12x-18x, and an EV/GP adj. of 13x-20x.
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