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Suominen’s results turned into sequential decline in Q3 due to operational issues and fell short of Vara Research consensus expectations. The company expects its target market to remain stable in the short term although some uncertainties related to global economic sentiment remain. Sales volumes, prices and margins increased y/y in Q3, while FX had a negative impact. Americas sales were weaker than we had anticipated while EMEA came above our expectations. Guidance of improving comparable EBITDA was maintained intact, while consensus has modelled EUR 24.4m in 2024E after EUR 15.8m in 2023. We note operational issues in Q3 while we do not know if the company has been able to resolve these during the quarter. Initially, we anticipate consensus to take down 2024 estimates more than 10% with more muted revisions for 2025E. In order to reach its guidance, Suominen has to deliver above EUR 3m comparable EBITDA in Q4, while we have anticipated EUR 6.6m.
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