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Swedencare: Strong delivery in the circumstances - ABG

Q3 report was slightly softer than our expectations
Explained by significant delivery delays
We lower 22e-‘23e EBITDA by 1-2%

Swedencare’s Q3 report had many moving parts. The main message of the report was that the company has seen significant delays in orders due to several factors: 1) covid-related delays in exhibitions, which generally result in rather substantial orders 2) a power outage 3) supply chain issues 4) factory covid outbreaks. This led to “lost sales” of c. USD 3m, of which quite a large share is likely to reappear during Q4. However, for Q3 this led to a sales miss of 6% vs. our forecast. But if a large portion of the above-mentioned sales reappear in Q4, in combination with continued cross-selling, product expansion, marketing collaborations (e.g., dr. Pol), as well as better seasonality, we deem our Q4 estimate of SEK 251m to be reasonable, and make no particular change to our top-line estimates on the back of the report.

On our updated estimates, the share is trading at a ‘21e-23e EV/EBIT of 85-48x. In the coming months, we expect new financial targets, further execution on the organic growth story, continued M&A execution and the revealing of the owner that entered with the Vetio acquisition.
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