The share price has declined by 14% since the Q1 report. Elevated fuel prices, combined with declining cargo volumes in H1, are the main reasons behind the share price development. Demand for a new quay in Paldiski may have also been lower than the company expected. The war in Ukraine is far from over, which could eventually offer notable upside to cargo volumes. Property development projects, as well as possible new tenants in Paldiski, could be visible in 2027 earnings, leading to flattish y/y EBITDA growth in 2026. The dividend yield could be a cornerstone of the equity story while earnings growth is absent. We estimate a dividend yield of 5.9% for spring 2027. Our fair value range of EUR 1.4-1.7 is unchanged, based on a combination of our DCF model and a peer-group comparison. The company's 2026E P/BV is 28% below the peer group's long-term median of 1.1x.
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