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Tempest Security: Focus on the future - SEB

The Q4 report was satisfactory in our view. Sales grew 10% y/y but the adj. EBITDA margin was 1.7pp lower than our forecast. The outlook was strong with c. SEK 80m of new contracts going live in 2024, securing stable growth and de-risking our 2024E sales growth of 11% y/y (assuming contract starts are spread out during H1/24). We keep our estimates mostly unchanged, lower adj. EBITDA by 3% for 2024E and reiterate our DCF mid-point of SEK 27.

The Q4 report was satisfactory in our view. Sales grew 10% y/y but the adj. EBITDA margin was 1.7pp lower than our forecast. The outlook was strong with c. SEK 80m of new contracts going live in 2024, securing stable growth and de-risking our 2024E sales growth of 11% y/y (assuming contract starts are spread out during H1/24). We keep our estimates mostly unchanged, lower adj. EBITDA by 3% for 2024E and reiterate our DCF mid-point of SEK 27.
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