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Tethys Oil: Estimates slightly down ahead of Q2 - ABG

• Q2'23 report due on Tuesday, 8 August
• Revised oil price assumptions
• P/NAV of 0.51x, discounts of USD 50/bbl

Q2'23 production below our estimate
Tethys Oil recently pre-announced its production numbers for Q2, which was somewhat below our estimates. Net production was 9.0kboe/d vs. ABGSCe of 9.5kboe/d, and the net entitlement was 4.7kboe/d, below ABGSCe of 4.9kboe/d. Due to the lower exit rate production from Q2, we also lower our production estimates slightly for the remainder of the year, and estimate FY'23 net production of 9.40kboe/d (9.67kboe/d). This is in the lower end of the current FY'23 guidance of 9.0-10.0kboe/d. For Q2'23, we now forecast net revenues of USD 34.7m and EBITDA of USD 20.1m. At the Q2 presentation, we expect updates on the production tests at Al Jumbd to be of key interest to the market. We have not yet included volumes from the production tests to our estimates
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