Increased estimates on higher oil price assumptions
Ahead of Tethys Oil's Q1 report, we make two main changes to our estimates: 1) We increase our oil price assumptions and now forecast USD 90/bbl until 2028 (USD 85/bbl previously), and we lift our long-term oil price to USD 75/bbl (USD 70/bbl previously). 2) We update our model with the trading update for Q1, which came in slightly below our estimates. Net production was 8.0kboe/d vs. ABGSCe of 8.3kboe/d and the net entitlement was 4.2kboe/d, vs ABGSCe of 4.3kboe/d. However, these numbers were expected given the monthly production updates Tethys is providing. In sum, our EBIT estimates for the next two years are up 13-15%. For Q1, we now forecast revenues and EBITDA of USD 30.2m and USD 15.5m, respectively.
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