Q2 production slightly below ABGSCe
We make two main changes to our estimates ahead of Tethys Oil's Q2 report: 1) We update our model with the trading update for Q2, which came in slightly below our estimates. Net production was 7.7kboe/d vs. ABGSCe at 8.3kboe/d and the net entitlement was 4.0kboe/d vs. ABGSCe at 4.2kboe/d. However, these numbers were expected given the monthly production updates that Tethys is providing; 2) We reduce our net production estimates for H2'24 from 8.3kboe/d to 8.0kboe/d due to lower exit rate production from H1. In sum, our EBIT estimate for '24e is down by 17%. For Q2, we now forecast revenues and EBITDA of USD 30.6m and USD 14.5m, respectively.
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