NOI up by 5-6% for '23e-'24e while material cuts to CEPS
Trianon posted Q4 NOI +2% vs ABGSCe. However, both higher-than-expected central admin costs (even adjusted for bad debt expenses of SEK 2.8m) and net interest, led to recurring PTP of SEK 35m vs ABGSCe at SEK 46m. The updated earnings capacity (NOI +7% and income from property management -7% q-o-q) leads us to increase our NOI estimates by ~5-6% for 2023-2024. We note an NOI margin in the earnings capacity of 67.5%, vs actual NOI LTM of 61.2% — we estimate 62% in 2023. All in all, growth is offset by higher interest rates and Trianon's relatively short interest maturity of 0.5 years, leading to negative CEPS revisions of ~37% and 47% for 2023e-2024e, respectively.
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