Trianon: Lower average interest rate is not likely to stay - Nordea

Trianon reported a mixed set of numbers for Q2. On the negative side, IFPM fell 10% short of our estimates, burdened by higher energy and property costs. On the positive side, the average interest rate decreased by 15 bp to 1.75%, which we see as a favourable development given the current market conditions. Earnings capacity improved by 6% q/q, mainly due to lower vacancies and lower interest costs. We argue, however, that the average interest rate is likely to increase (we assume a ~1pp increase over our 2022-24 forecast period), which will negatively affect adjusted EPS growth. We estimate an adjusted EPS CAGR of 9% for 2021-24 (17% previously). Despite a less favourable adjusted EPS growth outlook, we still see good prospects for continued NAV gains through project profits and value-enhancing investments. We estimate a NAV CAGR of 10% for 2021-24, not including potential acquisitions. Marketing material commissioned by Trianon.