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Verkkokauppa.com - Strong tailwind amid the pandemic - Evli Research

Expecting a strong Q2

Verkkokauppa.com had a strong start for the year as Q1’20 sales increased by over 8% y/y, boosted by exploded online sales caused by the COVID-19. Remote working has become the new normal during this time thus we expect good growth in the consumer electronics market. The management indicated that the demand of several other categories has developed favorably as well (e.g. sports, home). We also expect the good weather in the early summer to have a positive impact on sales. We have increased our Q2’20E sales expectation by 3% to EUR 113.2m. We expect Q2’20E adj. EBIT of EUR 1.3m (Q2’19: EUR 0.2m).

Targeting improved brand awareness

Verkkokauppa.com transferred to the main list of Nasdaq Helsinki in early June as the company is targeting to increase its brand awareness and to improve its liquidity. The total expenses related to the listing are EUR ~0.8m. According to the listing prospectus, some 16% of total sales in Q1’20 came from outside of Finland (2019: 12%). Due to the global movement restrictions, we expect significantly lower international sales during Q2E. We expect gross margin to improve in Q2E (14.9% vs. 14.2% in Q2’19) as the consumer electronics market should ease temporarily but also due to the good development of other smaller categories (offering higher margins). We expect good control over costs, supporting earnings development.

“BUY” with TP of EUR 6.2 (4.5)

We have increased our 20E adj. EBIT expectation by ~5% (EUR 14.3m) while slightly increasing our 20E sales expectation (EUR 525.4m). The company expects 20E sales of EUR 510m-530m and adj. EBIT of EUR 12-15m thus our estimates are at the higher end of the given guidance. We have also increased our 21E-22E sales expectation by 1-1.5% and adj. EBIT expectation by 6-7%. On our estimates, the company trades at 20E-21E EV/sales multiple of 0.4x, which translates into ~25% discount compared to the online focused Nordic and European peers. We keep our rating “BUY” with TP of EUR 6.2 (4.5).
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