Europe and particularly North America have made strong comebacks from the pandemic, which is evident in recent quarterly growth rates. However, we believe the 20-25% gain in sales vs. 2019 also points to market share gains. In our view, Vitrolife has partly benefitted from customers favouring local suppliers amid supply chain constraints, and we are watching whether the strength continues as conditions normalise. Time-lapse sales have been strong of late and we see this momentum continuing, potentially benefitting further from ongoing staff shortages in the US care sector driving demand for automation solutions. Asia is improving but the travel restrictions imposed on Chinese citizens are holding the region back. Q4’21e will be the first quarter since the pandemic with a relatively normal comp, and we expect more normal org. growth of 8% (Q4’20 0%). We forecast a 23% M&A contribution from Igenomix, which will be consolidated from 1 Dec, and an EBITDA margin of 38.6% (-3.9pp y-o-y), with Igenomix contributing with a lower margin (~25%). We expect SEK -85m in M&A-related NRI in reported figures.
Estimate revisions
We fine-tune our underlying estimates, making minor positive revisions on our belief that there is more recovery left. We also raise group sales by ~4% on FX and 2% on the acquisition of the Asian Genomics division. In total, our new sales and adj. EBITDA for ’22-‘23e are 8% higher. We also add Igenomix from 1 December, driving positive revisions to ‘21e.
Valuation down to 5y average following 35% share price drop
The share is down 35% YTD vs. the OMXSPI at -11%. It is now trading at 15x NTM EV/Sales and 40x NTM/EBITDA, roughly in line with its 5y average and 15% below its 2y average. Following 88% sales growth and 100% EBITDA growth in ‘22e, mainly due to the Igenomix acquisition, we expect V ... Läs mer på Introduce
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