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Vow published its Q3 trading update yesterday (27 October), with overall numbers falling short of street expectations. Cruise activity has started to pick up again after the COVID-19 slump in H1, but longer lead times than expected are impacting Vow's earnings. Group revenue has remained stable y/y, albeit with deflated margins and EBITDA down 25% over the same period. The soft numbers in the quarter were mainly driven by the phasing of project delivery schedules; we expect a catch-up effect going into 2022 – but highlight that visibility is low on earnings for the rest of the year. We therefore take a more cautious approach on the recovery pace and lower our estimates. We still see scope for a sequential improvement in the underlying market going forward. Following the report, we revise our fair value range to NOK 35-39 (38-41) per share based on SOTP valuation. Marketing material commissioned by Vow.
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