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Redeye updates its estimates ahead of Arise’s Q3 report which is due on 7 November. Arise is facing rather tough comparable numbers as we expect Q3 2024 to have lower revenue recognition in projects under construction relative to Q3 last year. Also, spot prices in the quarter have been relatively weak, especially compared to Q3 last year. However, this effect is somewhat muted, thanks to Arise’s favourable price hedges. Therefore, we expect Arise to realise a 120% premium (!) relative to if it would have had full spot exposure.
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