Long runway for growth, and momentum feels solid
Today we hosted BTS CEO Jessica Skon at ABGSC's Investor Days. Ms Skon highlighted BTS' strong historical track record of compounding earnings and still being a small player in a large growing market, which provides a long runway for growth. The plan to make 1-2 acquisitions per year remains in place, and these are typically complementary in terms of products or teams. Ms Skon commented that the early traction from the acquisition of Wonderway, an AI company in Germany acquired in 2024, is promising and taking off quite well already today. The solution is an AI tool for real-time sales performance and is now being launched in all markets. In terms of geographic demand, Europe started 2024 on the weak side, but recovered in Q3, and Ms Skon said that the positive development in Europe, and especially in Germany, has continued in the fall, which sounds positive to us. For 2025, we note that peers (Accenture, etc.) are forecasting better growth rates due to higher corporate spending and post a few slower growth years, which should also bode well for BTS. We estimate -3% EBITA growth in Q4e on a tough comp (Q4'23 was the strongest Q4 in BTS' history) while recovering to 18% EBITA growth in 2025e, which should lead to an optimistic 2025 guidance provided in the Q4 report.
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