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Petrolia Noco: On to the next one - ABG

Q3 figures below due to maintenance on Brage
Løvmeis plugged and abandoned, Bounty next
We reiterate our fair value range of NOK 1.2-3.2


Q3 figures below due to maintenance on Brage

In Q3, both revenues of NOK 130m and EBITDAX of NOK 90m were below our estimates of NOK 190m and NOK 137m, respectively, mainly due to reduced gas production from Brage in September caused by a 23-day planned maintenance shutdown. We note that this still represents a significant y-o-y increase due to the Brage acquisition being included in the reported numbers. Net production in Q3'24 came in at 2,200boe/d vs. only 29boe/d in H2'23, explaining the uplift in revenues. The company exited Q3'24 with a cash position of NOK 43m, up from NOK 25m at the end of Q2. Going forward, we update our model with our new oil and gas price view as described in our Crude Quarterly Q4'24, meaning a Brent assumption of USD 75 to YE'25, and USD 80 thereafter.
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