Getting ready for the OEM ramp-up Aircraft production + penetration to drive >10% AM growth 27-13x EBIT '25e-'27e (22x L10Y), 30-50% ROCE, net cash
ANNONS
Increased production + higher penetration
Today, we hosted CTT's CEO Henrik Höjer at ABGSC's Investor Days. Tariff uncertainty could still negatively affect the industry, but the direct impact on CTT's business and its customers has so far been limited. In addition, Mr. Höjer highlighted Boeing's strong backlog which, in the event of resumed restrictions to/from China, could simply result in the production slots being allocated to other customers, and should therefore not result in cancelled orders. The main highlight in our view was the strong emphasis, and belief, in a clear ramp-up of OEM sales during 2025-2026. Boeing and Airbus are now producing roughly 5-6 aircraft per month, but Boeing aims to reach 7 (+40%) this year and 10 (+100%) in 2026, while Airbus aims to reach 12 (+100%) in 2028. Mr. Höjer also expects CTT's OEM sales to outgrow production rate due to higher penetration rates on the B787 and A350. For reference, CTT had SEK 40m in OEM sales 2024, vs. ~170m in 2019, and we expect ~80-140m in 2025-2026. We expect the OEM ramp-up to become increasingly visible from Q3'25, as CTT's deliveries are typically 1-6 months ahead of the OEMs' increased production.
