Gentoo Media: Q1 set-back, but speedy actions - ABG
Weak Q1 top line, rapid actions taken We cut '25e-'26e adj. EBITDA by 23-15% on lower sales Trading below peers on 5.5x '25e EV/EBITDA
ANNONS
Q1 broke the strong top-line trend
After multiple years of sequential sales growth, G2M reported a soft Q1 with sales down 11% y-o-y and down 27% q-o-q. Brazil, which we only believed would have a small impact on G2M, appears significant (>EUR 2m headwind), and the company also sunset low-margin activities, which hurt the top line. Still, the underlying development seems softer than we expected even though we believe the Q1 weakness was partly temporary. On a lower base, we cut '25e sales by 16%, raise growth in '26e by 4pp assuming temporary soft H1'25 revenue, but lower '27e growth by 2pp on more cautious assumptions considering the soft underlying trends. We arrive at -6% sales growth in '25e, compared to G2M's guidance of sales 'broadly in line with 2024', with a slow Q2 followed by incremental improvements in H2'25e, partly supported by an increasing Brazil contribution.
