BTS Group: Putting faith in an improved 2025 - ABG
Q1 miss, 2025-27e adj. EBITA cut 4-5% FY guidance kept, we estimate 7% EBITA growth in 2025e Share at 11.4x 2025e EV/EBITA
ANNONS
Soft Q1 but ramp-up expected in 2025
Q1 missed expectations vs. both ABGSCe and FactSet consensus on growth and margins, but we consider the outlook comments and reiterated FY guidance to be encouraging for the rest of 2025. On a more detailed basis, the -9% Q1 organic development in Other markets was temporarily affected by some calendar effects and religious events in the Middle East, while BTS was able to close some large orders with expected delivery in the coming quarters. This should drive increased organic growth in the region ahead. We estimate 6% organic growth in Q2e vs. 1% in Q1 driven in particularly by improvement momentum in Other markets and easy comps in Europe (-23% in Q2'24). Regarding the USD 5m cost savings from increased productivity due to AI, we think this will be a sector-wide phenomenon and will therefore have a longer-term impact on pricing. Short-term, it relates to 2% of the 2024 cost base and is therefore supportive for the ~1pp margin impovement in 2026.
