Ahead of Atria's Q2 report, we maintain our estimates intact. We are in line with LSEG Data & Analytics consensus on sales and 3% ahead on adjusted EBIT for Q2E. We model EUR 17m adjusted EBIT for Q2E, down 8% y/y. We note strike impacts in Q2 that have likely caused some inefficiencies in Finland. In addition, we note availability issues with bovine in Finland which has become visible also in prices, and a cold weather that could have impacted the sales mix negatively in the grilling season. Atria is guiding for lower adjusted EBIT in 2025 compared to 2024 (EUR 65.4m) while we model EUR 66.2m, up 1% y/y, and 2% above consensus expectation of EUR 64.7m. Given the uncertain market conditions, we expect the company to maintain its guidance intact for now. Lastly, we note Atria has been awarded EUR 25m for clean transition investment support and we believe the company will proceed with its EUR 60-90m investment to modernise its convenience food production in Nurmo. We expect the final investment decision to be made in conjunction with the new strategy towards end of the year.
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