Clavister: Margin expansion and EBIT in sight - ABG
Margin upside building into H2 We cut EBITDA by 9-4% for '25e-'27e Trading at ~22x '26e EV/EBITDA
ANNONS
Firewall strength continues, defence set to scale
Clavister will release its Q2'25 report on 21 August. We expect SEK 53m in sales, implying y-o-y growth of 19%, with a ~1pp FX headwind from EUR-exposed sales. We expect growth in Q2 to be driven primarily by continued solid momentum in the civil firewall business, while we expect defence orders will ramp up in H2'25. We estimate EBITDA of SEK 6m (SEK 5m), corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 12% (12%), held back by higher opex from increases in sales and marketing costs, IAM integration and a sales mix more tilted towards hardware, which impacts gross margins negatively in the short term. Looking at H2, even though we expect higher defence deliveries to hold back the gross margin, we still expect the EBITDA margin to improve materially due to scale effects, rendering ~70% EBITDA growth y-o-y. We expect EBIT to remain negative in Q2 (SEK -5m) but turn positive in H2.
