Aspo: Speeding up strategy execution - Nordea

Aspo will list or divest its ESL Shipping segment in 2026. The decision will speed up strategy execution. Aspo has been negatively affected by a conglomerate discount for several years, and separating all three segments is expected to reveal hidden value. Moreover, ESL Shipping operates in a capital-heavy sector where Aspo might only have limited resources for further investments. The company's net debt-to-EBITDA is already 3.9x, with an equity ratio of 29%. Aspo's Q3 was a bit weaker than we expected, but the company reiterated its full-year guidance. Our clean EBITA forecast for this year is 8% below the guidance midpoint. Our estimates still point to a fair value range of EUR 6.7-8.2 per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. We believe that in 2026, the equity story could be related to expected earnings improvement in the ESL Shipping segment and its possible divestment multiple.