Embellence: Winds of change are blowing - ABG
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Embellence: Winds of change are blowing - ABG

* Net sales SEK 174m, -3% vs ABGSCe * EBITA SEK 24m, -18% vs ABGSCe * Cole & Son platform to be upgraded in Q4'25 Q3 in brief: below our expectations Embellence Group's Q3 report is slightly below expectations overall. Net sales of SEK 174m was -3% vs ABGSCe, and corresponded to organic growth of 5%. Growth was driven by the Artscape and external manufacturing segments, which grew 4% and 17% respectively. Gross margins were 60.6%, -20bp y-o-y, which coupled with a higher opex ratio resulted in a 13.6% EBITA margin, -150bp y-o-y. EBITA of SEK 24m was -18% vs ABGSCe, and corresponded to y-o-y growth of -8%. The opex ramp-up of SEK 3m is explained by investments into the organisation to drive future growth, e.g. strengthening the organisation within hospitality. Outlook: more e-commerce upgrades due in Q4'25 In Q1, Embellence Group stated that it saw markets stabilising. In the Q2 report, it said it had confidence for the future, and announced a couple of initiatives to further its e-commerce offering, including recruiting a new head of e-commerce and plans to rebuild Cole & Son's e-commerce platfrom by Q4'25. In Q3, it says that it sees positive signals related to the updated e-commerce platforms that have already been launched (Pappelina and Artscape), and that is expects Cole & Son's platform to be upgraded in Q4'25. Q3 moves our '25e EBITA by -5% Using yesterday's closing price and unrevised estimates, Embellence Group is trading at 8.6x-7.6x our '25e-'26e EV/EBITA vs a historical trading range of 5-9x NTM. L3M, the share has returned 10%. The Q3 report alone moves our '25e EBITA by -5%.

* Net sales SEK 174m, -3% vs ABGSCe * EBITA SEK 24m, -18% vs ABGSCe * Cole & Son platform to be upgraded in Q4'25 Q3 in brief: below our expectations Embellence Group's Q3 report is slightly below expectations overall. Net sales of SEK 174m was -3% vs ABGSCe, and corresponded to organic growth of 5%. Growth was driven by the Artscape and external manufacturing segments, which grew 4% and 17% respectively. Gross margins were 60.6%, -20bp y-o-y, which coupled with a higher opex ratio resulted in a 13.6% EBITA margin, -150bp y-o-y. EBITA of SEK 24m was -18% vs ABGSCe, and corresponded to y-o-y growth of -8%. The opex ramp-up of SEK 3m is explained by investments into the organisation to drive future growth, e.g. strengthening the organisation within hospitality. Outlook: more e-commerce upgrades due in Q4'25 In Q1, Embellence Group stated that it saw markets stabilising. In the Q2 report, it said it had confidence for the future, and announced a couple of initiatives to further its e-commerce offering, including recruiting a new head of e-commerce and plans to rebuild Cole & Son's e-commerce platfrom by Q4'25. In Q3, it says that it sees positive signals related to the updated e-commerce platforms that have already been launched (Pappelina and Artscape), and that is expects Cole & Son's platform to be upgraded in Q4'25. Q3 moves our '25e EBITA by -5% Using yesterday's closing price and unrevised estimates, Embellence Group is trading at 8.6x-7.6x our '25e-'26e EV/EBITA vs a historical trading range of 5-9x NTM. L3M, the share has returned 10%. The Q3 report alone moves our '25e EBITA by -5%.
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