Ahead of Elanders' Q4 report, we lower 2025E adjusted EBITA by 2% and 2026E-27E by 6%, due to FX and a slightly more cautious demand recovery over the short term. Following four quarters of double-digit y/y declines in adjusted EBITA, we expect flat earnings for Q4. However, looking into 2026, we look for more favourable comps, while the recent margin-enhancing structural measures should support group profitability. Thus we expect Elanders to enter a period of more positive earnings growth; we pencil in 40% y/y growth for H1 2026 and a 140bp group margin uplift by 2027, equivalent to a 2025E-27E adjusted EBITA CAGR of 12%. Despite 2026E lease-adjusted net debt/EBITDA of 3.2x, we continue to argue that Elanders is emerging with a more asset-light business model and better able to capitalise on rebounding demand going forward. We lower our multiples-based fair value range to SEK 49-89 (52-95), implying 2026E EV/EBITA of ~10-12x.
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