Cereno Scientific: Entering a value inflection phase - Edison

We refresh our investment case for Cereno Scientific as the company enters a key value inflection period, with its lead asset CS1 expected to initiate a Phase IIb study in Q226, followed by Phase II development of CS014 shortly thereafter. With the FDA green light for the CS1 Phase IIb study design in December 2025 and financing in place with the recent raise of up to SEK665m, we see a clear path to timely initiation of the CS1 trial, although we now expect a modest delay to CS014 timelines. We believe the CS1 Phase IIb trial represents the most significant upcoming catalyst for Cereno, with potential to drive a material re-rating. Winrevair/sotatercept’s sales trajectory since launch in March 2024 underscores the unmet need in PAH and the market’s receptiveness to potentially disease-modifying treatments, such as CS1. Reflecting adjustments to our peak sales and success probability assumptions for CS1, our valuation for Cereno resets to SEK6.6bn or SEK21.1/share (from SEK5.4bn or SEK17.5/ share previously).