Proact: Rise in memory prices creates some caution - ABG
* AI should drive data storage demand, but RAM prices are an issue * Small reductions to estimates, adj. EBITA -1-2% 2025-27e * Share trading at 8.9x EV/EBITA 2026e
ANNONS
Rising memory prices
Dustin reported it's Q1’26 report in mid-January, and the hot topic was the rising memory prices (up 2-4x last six months) and potential price increases of 15-30% on laptops holding back volumes. During the last component shortage situation in 2022, the correlation between Proact and Dustin in was relatively good, and we expect to see some potential headwinds for Proact in 2026e due to potential price increases on storage (system sales). The Dutch and German markets do not show signs of improvement, which means that further cost actions are likely to be taken to improve margins given the current negative growth momentum in units West and Central. Comps in Q4 are relatively easy, as last year was weak, and we therefore expect 3% organic growth alongside adj. EBITA of SEK 69m (5.4% margin vs 6.3% last year), down 14% y-o-y.
Estimate changes
We make small negative revisions due to continued cautioun on a quick system sales recovery due to rising memory prices, as well as still-muted peer performance; FX updates, meanwhile, have a slight positive impact. All in all, we revise adj EBITA by -1-2% in 2025-27e.
Valuation
The performance range within the sector (IT hardware providers) is spreading a bit, with Dustin performing more weakly (-24% last three months) and Atea stronger (+10%). This can also be compared to the Swedish technology index, which has underperformed the broader market by -20% over the last three months, with software leading the underperformance. On our updated numbers, the share trades at 7.3x EV/EBITA 2026e, 35% below peers.
