Ferronordic: Strong U.S. more than offsets Germany - ABG
* Solid report driven by very strong U.S. performance * Adj. EBIT mechanically up 16-13% for '26/'27e * Share is currently trading at 11-8x '26e/'27e EBIT
ANNONS
Q4 results
Sales SEK 1211m (12% vs. ABGSCe 1,081m, no cons), adj. EBIT 54m (108% vs. ABGSCe 26m), adj. EBIT margin 4% (ABGSCe 2.4%). EBIT beat vs ABGSCe driven by solid performance in the U.S and gradual improvement in Germany, alongside lower group costs. NRIs -32m (ABGSCe 0), following expanded cost-saving measures. Note however that the German earnings beat is partly due to impairments in Q4'24. Net debt came down slightly to 1,616m (1,641m in Q3), for a ND/equity of 124% (127% in Q3), although cash flow in the quarter was weighed by significant NWC tie-up.
Outlook and estimate changes
Management remains confident US demand despite tariff uncertainties driven by high activity in the infrastructure and investments in data centers. The German market remained soft, although management highlights some improvements in the outlook statement. On numbers alone, the earnings beat would raise '26e-'27e adj. EBIT by 16-13%. Overall we see this as a solid report due to the very strong performance in the U.S., in addition to the improved cost control.
Valuation
Prior to today's report, the share had returned +18 L3M, compared to the 9% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 11-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT.
