Isofol Medical: From first lessons to second execution - ABG
* Strong early efficacy signal * Solid cost management * Fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share
ANNONS
Strong early efficacy signal
Isofol today announced that all six currently evaluable RAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer patients in Part 1 of its Phase 1b/2 trial, treated with an optimised arfolitixorin regimen, experienced tumour shrinkage, with reductions in total tumour burden of up to ~50%. Furthermore, half of the patients improved to such a degree that they were removed from the trial for consideration of surgical removal, which is rare in this hard-to-treat population. Additionally, no dose-limiting toxicities have been observed. The reported efficacy results are based on patients treated at the first two dose levels, while the trial has now progressed to the third dose cohort. Although based on a small and early dataset, the findings provide clinical support for Isofol's optimised dosing strategy. We raise the LOA for the risk-weighted scenario B to 22.5% (20%).
Solid cost management
These encouraging results come following a solid Q4 report in which opex came in better than expected (SEK 13m vs. ABGSCe at SEK 16m). We slightly reduce opex for FY'26-'27e, though the valuation impact is offset by the continued USD headwind. Cash and cash equivalents came in at SEK 127m (SEK 139m at the end of Q3'25). As before, if all TO1 and TO2 warrants are exercised in full, we estimate a cash runway into 2028e.
Fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share
Our raised LOA for the risk-weighted scenario B to 22.5% (20%) yields SEK 1.8/share (1.6). As before, scenario A (no hierarchical order) assumes clinical failure (LOA 0%) yielding SEK 0.1/share, while scenario C assumes full clinical and commercial success in first-line mCRC (LOA 100%) with a value of SEK 10.5/share. This implies a fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share.
