Catella: Macro uncertainty to weigh on Q1'26 - ABG
* Q1 burdened by macro uncertainty * EPS scenario only tweaked * 2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 3-7x with 4-8% yield
ANNONS
Macro uncertainty negative for transaction activity
For the Q1’26 report due 8 May, we expect EBIT of SEK 18m (-43m). We expect that the global macro uncertainty has negatively impacted transaction activity here in the start of 2026, burdening earnings generation, especially within the Corporate Finance segment. Q1'26 will be the first quarter with Catella's new segment reporting, where Principal investments will be incorporated into the Investment management segment. Following this change, we estimate that the AUM base within Investment Management (IM) will increase by SEK 8bn q-o-q to SEK 161bn, helped by FX tailwinds, but primarily due to the new inclusion of development mandates (we forecast SEK 6bn). We expect the Investment Management segment to deliver operating profit of SEK 42m in the quarter, driven by fixed fees as we pencil in a very small contribution from variable fees in Q1'26.
'26e reduced on lower Corporate Fin. assumptions
In this preview, we lower our Corporate Finance estimates for the next two quarters on weaker activity assumptions, reducing 2026e EBIT by 14%. Positive FX effects and lower financial expenses following bond buybacks reduce the negative EPS effect, which is only down by 2% for 2026. Our estimates for 2027 and 2028 remain unchanged.
2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 3-7x with dividend yield of 4-8%
Reduced global macro uncertainty would be positive for the transaction activity outlook as well as Catella's earnings generation the coming years. Applying our latest revisions, Catella is trading at a 2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 3-7x and offers an appealing dividend yield of 4-8% p.a. across our forecast horizon. In addition, the company offers a strong balance sheet, providing Catella with the necessary resources to act should the right attractive opportunities arise.
