Petrolia Noco: Q1 solid, May shut-in trims '26e production - ABG
* Q1 EBITDA NOK 167m, 14% above ABGSCe * '26e production down 3%, '27e-'28e unchanged * Fair value range NOK 1.0-4.5
ANNONS
Q1 production 3.34 kboe/d, in line with ABGSCe
Q1'26 production was 3.34 kboe/d, 1% above ABGSCe of 3.30 kboe/d. Revenue of NOK 244m was 7% above ABGSCe of NOK 229m due to higher realised prices. Production costs of NOK 50m were in line with our expectations, with only a minor over-/underlift effect during the quarter. Exploration expenses amounted to NOK 13m, below ABGSCe of NOK 17m, although this remains a lumpy line item. Overall, Q1 EBITDA came in at NOK 167m, 14% above ABGSCe of NOK 146m, although the underlying operating performance was broadly in line with our expectations. Petrolia exited Q1 with a cash position of NOK 98m, and we estimate this increased to NOK 121m by the end of Q2.
'26e production down 3% due to Brage shut-in in May
Based on monthly production updates from Lime Petroleum (34% interest in Brage), we know that April production was slightly lower than we had expected. More importantly, Lime also reported that production at Brage was shut in throughout May due to maintenance, which lasted longer than initially scheduled. However, production fully restarted on 3 June, and we expect output to return to pre-shut-in levels. We also anticipate somewhat higher production for the remainder of the year than we had previously estimated. Nevertheless, this prompts us to lower '26e production by 3%, while we keep '27e-'28e unchanged. With a higher realised oil price in Q2 than we had forecast, we make only minor estimate changes, lowering '26e EBITDA by 1%. We make no changes to our oil price deck and reiterate USD 75/bbl from '27e, as stated in our Crude Quarterly sector report.
Fair value range of NOK 1.0-4.5/sh
Assuming a long-term Brent price of USD 50-100/bbl, we estimate a NAV of NOK 1.0-5.2/sh for Petrolia. Using a 13% WACC, the current share price implies a discounted oil price of USD 55/bbl on ABGSCe.
