Cicor Technologies: Expecting a softer H1 - Nordea
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Cicor Technologies: Expecting a softer H1 - Nordea

After the recent announcements of a divestment and implementation of additional efficiency measures (also addressing potential negative effects on margins from continued supply chain constraints), we lower our full-year EBITDA estimate, placing us in the middle of the guidance range (CHF 75m). We also revise 2027E-28E sales and EBITDA by 4%. While Cicor expects CHF 10m in annual cost savings, taking effect from H2, we had largely already assumed that integration efforts would take place. Management has also communicated that it expects H1 to be materially softer than H2, with EBITDA margins in the mid- to high-single-digit range. Still, it expects H2 to show robust double-digit EBITDA margins. We expect a 7.8% margin for H1, improving to 12.5% in H2. While we are 20% below Infront consensus for H1E, we are in line for 2026E, and therefore expect consensus estimates to be tilted towards H2, reflecting a softer start to the year. We revise our fair value in line with our estimate changes, to CHF 143-182 (155-195) per share.

After the recent announcements of a divestment and implementation of additional efficiency measures (also addressing potential negative effects on margins from continued supply chain constraints), we lower our full-year EBITDA estimate, placing us in the middle of the guidance range (CHF 75m). We also revise 2027E-28E sales and EBITDA by 4%. While Cicor expects CHF 10m in annual cost savings, taking effect from H2, we had largely already assumed that integration efforts would take place. Management has also communicated that it expects H1 to be materially softer than H2, with EBITDA margins in the mid- to high-single-digit range. Still, it expects H2 to show robust double-digit EBITDA margins. We expect a 7.8% margin for H1, improving to 12.5% in H2. While we are 20% below Infront consensus for H1E, we are in line for 2026E, and therefore expect consensus estimates to be tilted towards H2, reflecting a softer start to the year. We revise our fair value in line with our estimate changes, to CHF 143-182 (155-195) per share.
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